Δισεβδομαδιαία Επισκόπηση 15-28 Ιανουαρίου 2019
Turkey
The 2018 Budget achieved its target -- a deficit of 1.9% of GDP – mainly on the back of one-off non-tax revenue
The current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed by 2.0 pps to a 9-year low of 3.6% of GDP in FY:18
The capital and financial account is estimated to have not contributed, for the first time since the 2001 liquidity crisis, to the financing of the current account deficit in FY:18
Romania
Favourable food and energy prices contained end-year headline inflation -- up 3.3% y-o-y, unchanged compared with end-2017, and within the NBR's target range (2.5±1%)
The NBR will likely maintain its key rate on hold, but tighten market liquidity to ease pressure on the RON
Bulgaria
Headline inflation stood at 2.7% y-o-y at end-2018, broadly unchanged compared with end-2017, as favourable energy prices offset the impact of stronger domestic demand and higher volatile food prices
Tourism activity weakened in FY:18, mainly due to a negative base effect
Serbia
End-year headline inflation moderated to 2.0% y-o-y in 2018 from 3.0% in 2017, due to lower core inflation and favourable prices of fruits and vegetables
The NBS is set to keep its central rate (the 2-week repo rate) on hold at an all-time low of 3.0% this year
FYROM
Credit growth reached a 3-year high of 7.2% y-o-y at end-2018, mainly on the back of higher lending to corporates
Customer deposit growth almost doubled in FY:18 (up 9.5% y-o-y), due to improving confidence in the domestic economy
Residential real estate prices recovered in FY:18 (up 1.8%), due to improving economic activity and accelerating mortgage lending
Albania
Headline inflation ended 2018 at 1.8% y-o-y -- well below its target for an 8th successive year
The BoA is set to maintain its key rate on hold this year
Cyprus
Banking sector returns to the black in 9M:18, due to lower provisioning and an exceptional accounting gain related to Hellenic Bank's acquisition of Cyprus Cooperative Bank's operations
Egypt
The sizeable fiscal consolidation planned for this fiscal year -- 1.8 pps of GDP – is on track
FX reserves increased by USD 5.5bn to an all-time high of USD 42.6bn (7.2 months of imports of GNFS) in 2018, underpinned by solid implementation of the loan agreement with the IMF (signed in November 2016)
Appendix: Financial Markets