Εβδομαδιαία Επισκόπηση: Διεθνής Οικονομία & Αγορές, 25/11/25
Enhanced diplomatic mobility on the Ukraine front has taken hold, with natural gas prices remaining close to 18-month lows of €30/MWh
Global equity markets continue to exhibit elevated volatility, with the option-based VIX index increasing to a seven-month high of 27% on Thursday, before normalizing to 22% in the current week.
Investors’ nervousness related to stretched valuations in the Artificial Intelligence universe remains. In the past week, all major equity indices declined by 2% to 3%.
Global equity markets entered the current week mostly on a positive note, with the MSCI ACWI up by +1.2% on Monday November 24th, keeping also an eye on enhanced diplomatic mobility regarding the war in Ukraine, after the US put a draft peace plan on the table.
Natural gas prices in Europe have declined by c.-5% cumulatively since mid-past-week, when negotiations from parties involved appeared to pick up pace, to TTF €30/MWh.
Regarding fixed income, the UK Government 10-year yields declined by -3 bps to 4.55% (-3 bps YtD) ahead of the Autumn Budget (November 26th), with investors’ focus on the revenue – spending mix.
US Treasury yields also decreased, with the 2-year down by -10 bps wow to 3.51% and its 10-year peer by -9 bps wow to 4.06% (-51 bps YtD). Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials has been rather mixed regarding the prospect and the timing of the next cut in the policy rate (FFR).
In the past week though, the Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee Williams sounded a dovish tone, with market implied expectations according to FFR futures, now pointing to a 80% chance for a December 10th cut, versus 50% a week ago.
Note that the FOMC will meet on December 10th under still limited economic data availability. The next CPI release is due on December 18th and will cover November and (with partial data) October. The same goes for the next labor market report, rescheduled for December 16th.
Having said that, the official economic dataflow has rebooted. In the event non-farm payrolls increased by +119 thousand (“k”) on net in September, from -4k in August (12-month average of +109k and +93k since 2000), versus consensus estimates for +50k. The unemployment rate slightly rose by +0.1 pp month-over-month to a 4-year high of 4.4% (4.1% a year ago), albeit due to a similar increase in the labor force participation rate (62.4%).
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updated its estimates regarding the fiscal impact of higher import tariffs. If levies are sustained at current levels, they will have a cumulative downward impact on the overall federal fiscal deficit of $3.0 billion (10% of GDP) in the period from 2025 to 2035.
That estimate represents a downward revision from a respective one conducted c. 3 months ago for $4.0 bn, inter alia on account of recent US trade agreements which partly lowered tariffs. Regarding trade policy, tensions appear to have lessened, with President Trump characterizing US-China relations as “extremely strong” following a call with President Xi.
In the euro area, the composite PMI was roughly stable at 52.4 in November, having risen from 51.0 on average in Q3:2025, albeit the manufacturing sector continues to operate on weak footing of 49.7 versus an 18-month high of 53.1 in Services.
Global equity markets continue to exhibit elevated volatility, with the option-based VIX index increasing to a seven-month high of 27% on Thursday, before normalizing to 22% in the current week.
Investors’ nervousness related to stretched valuations in the Artificial Intelligence universe remains. In the past week, all major equity indices declined by 2% to 3%.
Global equity markets entered the current week mostly on a positive note, with the MSCI ACWI up by +1.2% on Monday November 24th, keeping also an eye on enhanced diplomatic mobility regarding the war in Ukraine, after the US put a draft peace plan on the table.
Natural gas prices in Europe have declined by c.-5% cumulatively since mid-past-week, when negotiations from parties involved appeared to pick up pace, to TTF €30/MWh.
Regarding fixed income, the UK Government 10-year yields declined by -3 bps to 4.55% (-3 bps YtD) ahead of the Autumn Budget (November 26th), with investors’ focus on the revenue – spending mix.
US Treasury yields also decreased, with the 2-year down by -10 bps wow to 3.51% and its 10-year peer by -9 bps wow to 4.06% (-51 bps YtD). Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials has been rather mixed regarding the prospect and the timing of the next cut in the policy rate (FFR).
In the past week though, the Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee Williams sounded a dovish tone, with market implied expectations according to FFR futures, now pointing to a 80% chance for a December 10th cut, versus 50% a week ago.
Note that the FOMC will meet on December 10th under still limited economic data availability. The next CPI release is due on December 18th and will cover November and (with partial data) October. The same goes for the next labor market report, rescheduled for December 16th.
Having said that, the official economic dataflow has rebooted. In the event non-farm payrolls increased by +119 thousand (“k”) on net in September, from -4k in August (12-month average of +109k and +93k since 2000), versus consensus estimates for +50k. The unemployment rate slightly rose by +0.1 pp month-over-month to a 4-year high of 4.4% (4.1% a year ago), albeit due to a similar increase in the labor force participation rate (62.4%).
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updated its estimates regarding the fiscal impact of higher import tariffs. If levies are sustained at current levels, they will have a cumulative downward impact on the overall federal fiscal deficit of $3.0 billion (10% of GDP) in the period from 2025 to 2035.
That estimate represents a downward revision from a respective one conducted c. 3 months ago for $4.0 bn, inter alia on account of recent US trade agreements which partly lowered tariffs. Regarding trade policy, tensions appear to have lessened, with President Trump characterizing US-China relations as “extremely strong” following a call with President Xi.
In the euro area, the composite PMI was roughly stable at 52.4 in November, having risen from 51.0 on average in Q3:2025, albeit the manufacturing sector continues to operate on weak footing of 49.7 versus an 18-month high of 53.1 in Services.