Εβδομαδιαία Επισκόπηση: Διεθνής Οικονομία & Αγορές, 21/04/26
Investors’ attention turns to the US - Iran talks, as the ceasefire draws close to its expiry
Global equity markets recovered further in the past week (MSCI ACWI: +3.9%), with investors appearing to price-in benign upcoming diplomatic developments on the Iran front. Recall that the recent 2-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday afternoon, with diplomatic mobility being underway in Pakistan (a mediator between the US and Iran).
US bourses notched record highs, in view also of a solid start in the Q1:2026 corporate results season, with the S&P500 breaking above the 7000 mark for the first time (+4.5% wow to 7126, with a slight decline of -0.2% following on Monday April 20th). The EuroStoxx, rose by +2.1% wow, followed by -1.0% on April 20th, -1.8% away from its recent all-time highs in late February.
Data for March provide a first view on how the situation in the Middle East has upended energy markets. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), on a monthly basis global oil supply fell by -10.1 million barrels per day (“mb/d”) to 97 mb/d. The latter was due to OPEC+ production falling by -9.4 mb/d mom to 42.4 mb/d alongside a c. -1.4 mb/d loss for Qatar (not an OPEC member).
A further decline in supply is anticipated for April given, inter alia, that Iran’s production (unperturbed in March at c. 3.4 mb/d), may be compromised due to the recent blockade on its ports by the US. Moreover, the ability of Gulf countries to store produced (but not able to be transited) oil is being depleted, suggesting that further production curtailment will become necessary.
In the event, floating storage of crude and oil products in the Middle East rose by 100 mb in March and onshore crude stocks by 20 mb. Based on data from Kpler, 171 mb of oil is stored in tankers in the Gulf, while onshore crude stocks in the region stand at 262 mb, according to Kayrros satellite data.
According to the IEA, in the event of a restoration of reliably safe passage from the Strait of Hormuz, c. 2 months would be necessary for a re-establishment of steady exports. Still, initial volumes would be below pre-war levels due to a wide array of technical issues. For example, an estimated 50% of Gulf country upstream fields have sufficient reservoir pressure and fluid characteristics to return to pre-war levels within approximately 2 weeks, rising to 80% c. 1 month later.
The IMF, in its baseline scenario, anticipates global real GDP annual growth of +3.1% in 2026 and +3.2% in 2027, following a +3.4% in 2025. Absent the war in the Middle-East, the IMF would envisage +3.4% in 2026 (+3.2% in 2027). On global consumer inflation, the IMF revised up its projections by +0.6 pps for 2026 to +4.4% yoy and by +0.3 pps to +3.7% yoy for 2027, following a +4.1% yoy in 2025.
For the euro area (a net energy importer), after a +1.4% yoy in 2025, real GDP is envisaged at +1.1% yoy in 2026 and +1.2% yoy in 2027, both revised down by -0.2 pps compared with January. For the US (a net energy exporter), following a +2.1% in 2025, real GDP annual growth is foreseen at +2.3% in 2026 and +2.1% in 2027, roughly unrevised versus 3 months ago.
Importantly, the aforementioned reference scenario is predicated on the benign assumption that the war will have limited duration, intensity and scope, with respective supply disruptions for energy commodities fading by mid-2026. In that context, the IMF assessed the balance of risks as predominantly to the downside for GDP growth and to the upside for inflation.
Global equity markets recovered further in the past week (MSCI ACWI: +3.9%), with investors appearing to price-in benign upcoming diplomatic developments on the Iran front. Recall that the recent 2-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday afternoon, with diplomatic mobility being underway in Pakistan (a mediator between the US and Iran).
US bourses notched record highs, in view also of a solid start in the Q1:2026 corporate results season, with the S&P500 breaking above the 7000 mark for the first time (+4.5% wow to 7126, with a slight decline of -0.2% following on Monday April 20th). The EuroStoxx, rose by +2.1% wow, followed by -1.0% on April 20th, -1.8% away from its recent all-time highs in late February.
Data for March provide a first view on how the situation in the Middle East has upended energy markets. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), on a monthly basis global oil supply fell by -10.1 million barrels per day (“mb/d”) to 97 mb/d. The latter was due to OPEC+ production falling by -9.4 mb/d mom to 42.4 mb/d alongside a c. -1.4 mb/d loss for Qatar (not an OPEC member).
A further decline in supply is anticipated for April given, inter alia, that Iran’s production (unperturbed in March at c. 3.4 mb/d), may be compromised due to the recent blockade on its ports by the US. Moreover, the ability of Gulf countries to store produced (but not able to be transited) oil is being depleted, suggesting that further production curtailment will become necessary.
In the event, floating storage of crude and oil products in the Middle East rose by 100 mb in March and onshore crude stocks by 20 mb. Based on data from Kpler, 171 mb of oil is stored in tankers in the Gulf, while onshore crude stocks in the region stand at 262 mb, according to Kayrros satellite data.
According to the IEA, in the event of a restoration of reliably safe passage from the Strait of Hormuz, c. 2 months would be necessary for a re-establishment of steady exports. Still, initial volumes would be below pre-war levels due to a wide array of technical issues. For example, an estimated 50% of Gulf country upstream fields have sufficient reservoir pressure and fluid characteristics to return to pre-war levels within approximately 2 weeks, rising to 80% c. 1 month later.
The IMF, in its baseline scenario, anticipates global real GDP annual growth of +3.1% in 2026 and +3.2% in 2027, following a +3.4% in 2025. Absent the war in the Middle-East, the IMF would envisage +3.4% in 2026 (+3.2% in 2027). On global consumer inflation, the IMF revised up its projections by +0.6 pps for 2026 to +4.4% yoy and by +0.3 pps to +3.7% yoy for 2027, following a +4.1% yoy in 2025.
For the euro area (a net energy importer), after a +1.4% yoy in 2025, real GDP is envisaged at +1.1% yoy in 2026 and +1.2% yoy in 2027, both revised down by -0.2 pps compared with January. For the US (a net energy exporter), following a +2.1% in 2025, real GDP annual growth is foreseen at +2.3% in 2026 and +2.1% in 2027, roughly unrevised versus 3 months ago.
Importantly, the aforementioned reference scenario is predicated on the benign assumption that the war will have limited duration, intensity and scope, with respective supply disruptions for energy commodities fading by mid-2026. In that context, the IMF assessed the balance of risks as predominantly to the downside for GDP growth and to the upside for inflation.