Εβδομαδιαία Επισκόπηση: Διεθνής Οικονομία & Αγορές, 16/06/26
The US and Iran forthcoming deal supports risk appetite, with oil prices at 3½-month lows
On Sunday, an agreement was announced between the US and Iran on a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) to be signed on June 19th, which will serve as a basis for subsequent negotiations (reportedly, set initially to last up to 60 days) for a comprehensive peace deal.
The MoU entails, inter alia, that both Iran and the US withdraw all barriers and interruptions of naval flows in the region, in the duration of the peace negotiations. In that context, oil prices have eased sharply in recent sessions to $80/barrel on Tuesday June 16th (+11% versus end-February 2026).
These developments supported risk appetite, with the MSCI ACWI having gained +4.1% as of June 15th since mid-past week (when optimism for a US-Iran agreement started to be reinforced). In the same period, core government bond yields moved lower by around -10 bps.
Meanwhile, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) – high technology investment theme remains robust, as indicated, inter alia, by the Initial Public Offering (IPO) from SpaceX, a company mainly operating in the fields of aerospace & manufacturing, telecommunications (via its subsidiary Starlink, primarily a satellite constellation network) and AI (via its subsidiary xAI which also incorporates the social media platform X).
In the event, the $75 billion IPO from SpaceX concluded successfully (reportedly, offers came close to 4x that amount) making it the largest IPO ever (in nominal terms). Strong demand was confirmed in the first 2 days of trading, with the stock closing at $193 on Monday June 15th, +43% above the IPO price of $135. Applying that price also on privately-held stocks, total valuation reaches c. $2.5 trillion.
Apart from geopolitical developments, attention in the current week also turns to the meetings of several major central Banks, including those of the United Kingdom on June 18th (expected to stand pat with the Bank Rate at 3.75%) and, more importantly, the US (June 17th).
Regarding the US Federal Reserve, in its first meeting chaired by Mr.Warsh, with elevated prices of international energy commodities in recent months continuing to feed through to consumer prices and with the labor market remaining resilient, no change in monetary policy is anticipated, with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at a range of 3.50% - 3.75%.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its monetary policy interest rates by +0.25%, to +2.25% for the Deposit Facility Rate. That decision was anticipated, with the ECB judging that the continuation in the Middle East of acute energy supply disruptions in recent months, had reinforced upside risks for inflation.
On forward guidance, the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach remains in place, with developments in the Middle East remaining a major pivotal factor for the economic outlook.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also hiked its policy rate by +0.25% to 1.00%, the highest since 1995. The decision was anticipated, with the BoJ judging that upside risks to inflation have intensified, whereas downside risks to economic activity have eased, inter alia due to progress being underway in substituting energy supplies from the Middle East. The forward guidance pointing to the prospect of further hikes was maintained.
On Sunday, an agreement was announced between the US and Iran on a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) to be signed on June 19th, which will serve as a basis for subsequent negotiations (reportedly, set initially to last up to 60 days) for a comprehensive peace deal.
The MoU entails, inter alia, that both Iran and the US withdraw all barriers and interruptions of naval flows in the region, in the duration of the peace negotiations. In that context, oil prices have eased sharply in recent sessions to $80/barrel on Tuesday June 16th (+11% versus end-February 2026).
These developments supported risk appetite, with the MSCI ACWI having gained +4.1% as of June 15th since mid-past week (when optimism for a US-Iran agreement started to be reinforced). In the same period, core government bond yields moved lower by around -10 bps.
Meanwhile, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) – high technology investment theme remains robust, as indicated, inter alia, by the Initial Public Offering (IPO) from SpaceX, a company mainly operating in the fields of aerospace & manufacturing, telecommunications (via its subsidiary Starlink, primarily a satellite constellation network) and AI (via its subsidiary xAI which also incorporates the social media platform X).
In the event, the $75 billion IPO from SpaceX concluded successfully (reportedly, offers came close to 4x that amount) making it the largest IPO ever (in nominal terms). Strong demand was confirmed in the first 2 days of trading, with the stock closing at $193 on Monday June 15th, +43% above the IPO price of $135. Applying that price also on privately-held stocks, total valuation reaches c. $2.5 trillion.
Apart from geopolitical developments, attention in the current week also turns to the meetings of several major central Banks, including those of the United Kingdom on June 18th (expected to stand pat with the Bank Rate at 3.75%) and, more importantly, the US (June 17th).
Regarding the US Federal Reserve, in its first meeting chaired by Mr.Warsh, with elevated prices of international energy commodities in recent months continuing to feed through to consumer prices and with the labor market remaining resilient, no change in monetary policy is anticipated, with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at a range of 3.50% - 3.75%.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its monetary policy interest rates by +0.25%, to +2.25% for the Deposit Facility Rate. That decision was anticipated, with the ECB judging that the continuation in the Middle East of acute energy supply disruptions in recent months, had reinforced upside risks for inflation.
On forward guidance, the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach remains in place, with developments in the Middle East remaining a major pivotal factor for the economic outlook.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also hiked its policy rate by +0.25% to 1.00%, the highest since 1995. The decision was anticipated, with the BoJ judging that upside risks to inflation have intensified, whereas downside risks to economic activity have eased, inter alia due to progress being underway in substituting energy supplies from the Middle East. The forward guidance pointing to the prospect of further hikes was maintained.