Εβδομαδιαία Επισκόπηση: Διεθνής Οικονομία & Αγορές, 10/11/25
The US Senate has advanced a bill to end the longest shutdown in history
The Senate has advanced a bill to end the ongoing -- since October 1st -- partial federal government shutdown, the longest in US history. On Sunday November 9th, a deal secured a critical support threshold in a Senate committee, with 60 senators out of 100 backing it, of which 8 Democrats.
On November 10th equity markets were heading for gains of c. +1% as a resolution of the shutdown is positive, inter alia, for economic growth.
Although the procedure towards a bill which will gain the final approval of the legislature includes more steps going forward, the latest development leaves room for optimism that the shutdown could be nearing an end. Having said that, a prospective bipartisan deal, currently appears likely to secure a full functioning of the federal government up until end-January, with several issues to be carved out by then for a more durable and comprehensive agreement to take place.
Global equity markets have taken a breather in the past week (MSCI ACWI: -1.5%) amid stretched valuations and investors’ concerns on whether the Artificial Intelligence investment theme has run ahead of itself. The S&P500 decreased by -1.6% wow, with Information Technology leading the losses (-4.2% wow).
Government bond yields posted modest changes, with US Treasury yields being little changed (10-Year: 4.09%) in view of mixed economic data and Supreme Court’s oral arguments indicating that a majority of justices were skeptical of the President’s authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA. 10-Year yields increased toward 4.12% on November 10th as expectations for ending the 40-day government shutdown lowered demand for safe-haven treasuries.
At the same time, according to ADP, employment in the US private sector rose by +42k on net in October, after losses of -29k in September. The latest reading was above consensus estimates for +32k, albeit remains anemic compared with a 12-month average of +81k (+146k since 2010).
Note that other private sector surveys regarding the labor market (Challenger, Gray & Christmas), pointed to increased layoffs in October, while various large-cap companies, including in Technology and Communications sectors, have announced job cuts recently. Recall that in view of the partial federal government shutdown and the consequent limited availability of official economic data, information received from private sector surveys has gained relatively more attention.
The Bank of England kept the policy interest rate in restrictive territory (+4.0%) as CPI inflation was +3.8% year-over-year in September, well above the target of +2%, albeit below BoE’s estimates back in August for +4.0% year-over-year. However, the decision was taken with a marginal majority of votes in the Committee as the latest data on CPI have corroborated the anticipation that an easing of inflation is on the cards, as temporary boosting factors start to wane.
Indeed, 5 members favoured the decision, with 4 members voting for a reduction of -0.25% to 3.75%. Now, according to overnight index swaps, investors price-in a high likelihood of a -0.25% rate cut in the next BoE meeting on December 18th. The British Pound was unperturbed, continuing to hover close to a 7-month low against the US Dollar (£/$1.315).
The Senate has advanced a bill to end the ongoing -- since October 1st -- partial federal government shutdown, the longest in US history. On Sunday November 9th, a deal secured a critical support threshold in a Senate committee, with 60 senators out of 100 backing it, of which 8 Democrats.
On November 10th equity markets were heading for gains of c. +1% as a resolution of the shutdown is positive, inter alia, for economic growth.
Although the procedure towards a bill which will gain the final approval of the legislature includes more steps going forward, the latest development leaves room for optimism that the shutdown could be nearing an end. Having said that, a prospective bipartisan deal, currently appears likely to secure a full functioning of the federal government up until end-January, with several issues to be carved out by then for a more durable and comprehensive agreement to take place.
Global equity markets have taken a breather in the past week (MSCI ACWI: -1.5%) amid stretched valuations and investors’ concerns on whether the Artificial Intelligence investment theme has run ahead of itself. The S&P500 decreased by -1.6% wow, with Information Technology leading the losses (-4.2% wow).
Government bond yields posted modest changes, with US Treasury yields being little changed (10-Year: 4.09%) in view of mixed economic data and Supreme Court’s oral arguments indicating that a majority of justices were skeptical of the President’s authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA. 10-Year yields increased toward 4.12% on November 10th as expectations for ending the 40-day government shutdown lowered demand for safe-haven treasuries.
At the same time, according to ADP, employment in the US private sector rose by +42k on net in October, after losses of -29k in September. The latest reading was above consensus estimates for +32k, albeit remains anemic compared with a 12-month average of +81k (+146k since 2010).
Note that other private sector surveys regarding the labor market (Challenger, Gray & Christmas), pointed to increased layoffs in October, while various large-cap companies, including in Technology and Communications sectors, have announced job cuts recently. Recall that in view of the partial federal government shutdown and the consequent limited availability of official economic data, information received from private sector surveys has gained relatively more attention.
The Bank of England kept the policy interest rate in restrictive territory (+4.0%) as CPI inflation was +3.8% year-over-year in September, well above the target of +2%, albeit below BoE’s estimates back in August for +4.0% year-over-year. However, the decision was taken with a marginal majority of votes in the Committee as the latest data on CPI have corroborated the anticipation that an easing of inflation is on the cards, as temporary boosting factors start to wane.
Indeed, 5 members favoured the decision, with 4 members voting for a reduction of -0.25% to 3.75%. Now, according to overnight index swaps, investors price-in a high likelihood of a -0.25% rate cut in the next BoE meeting on December 18th. The British Pound was unperturbed, continuing to hover close to a 7-month low against the US Dollar (£/$1.315).