NORTH MACEDONIA
GDP growth firmed to 3.5% in FY:25 from 3.0% in FY:24, underpinned by fixed investment and public consumption
Assuming that global uncertainty eases, economic growth should remain slightly above trend over the forecast horizon, outpacing the long-term potential of c. 3.0%, despite more limited support from economic policy
Potential spillovers from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could weigh on GDP growth, depending on the duration of the conflict, particularly in light of the economy’s high energy dependency
ROMANIA
Multi-stage fiscal consolidation efforts have begun to yield results, with the budget deficit narrowing to 7.7% of GDP in FY:25, down from 8.7% in FY:24, though still the highest in the EU
The full impact of the corrective measures introduced in 2025 should continue supporting fiscal consolidation this year
Large fiscal deficits -- although declining -- should keep public debt on an upward trajectory by the end of the decade
Fiscal challenges persist, yet a large deviation from the envisaged fiscal adjustment path could undermine confidence and test macroeconomic stability
SERBIA
Despite disruptions to NIS operations, the economy ended the year on a strong footing, with FY:25 growth reaching 2.0%, significantly lower than the 3.9% recorded in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of prolonged political uncertainty
Conditional on the absence of prolonged internal or external disturbances, GDP growth would firm to 3.1% in FY:26, before rising to around 4.0% in FY:27, supported by an accelerating public investment cycle associated with preparations for EXPO 2027
However, downside risks dominate the outlook, stemming primarily from potential spillovers from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East
APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT:
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
FINANCIAL MARKETS