Αναδυόμενες Αγορές Νοτιοανατολικής Ευρώπης & Μεσογείου: Δισεβδομαδιαία Επισκόπηση 18 - 31 Μαρτίου 2025

ROMANIA
A disappointing FY:24 GDP growth performance (up by just 0.9% against 2.4% in FY:23) underscores the economy’s structural weaknesses
Despite envisaged fiscal consolidation, GDP growth is seen rebounding to 2.2% in FY:25, supported by a smaller drag from net exports and RRF-led fixed investment 
However, economic growth will remain below its long-term potential of c. 3½%, with heightened global uncertainty and domestic political tensions tilting the balance of risks to the downside

SERBIA
GDP grew by a solid 3.9% -- broadly in line with its long-term potential -- in FY:24, underpinned by resilient domestic demand
Despite heightened political uncertainty and unfolding global trade war, GDP growth is projected to remain broadly flat at 3.8%, for a 3rd consecutive year in FY:25, topping regional average
Upside risks to inflation prompt a more cautious approach to monetary easing by the NBS

EGYPT
The IMF Executive Board completed the 4th review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement, allowing for an immediate disbursement of USD 1.2bn, and approved a new USD 1.3bn arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), renewing its vote of confidence in the Egyptian economy
Despite the small size of IMF disbursements per se, authorities’ commitment on programme implementation is a sine qua non condition not only for securing release of financing from other IFIs but also attracting private investment funding -- much needed to plug Egypt’s substantially high external financing needs

APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT:  
        MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
        FINANCIAL MARKETS