Weekly Report 5 - 11 April 2016


A more accommodative monetary policy stance in sight following the appointment of a new CBRT Governor

Customer deposits (FX-adjusted) gain momentum in Q1:16, underpinned by higher remuneration rates

Lending activity (FX-adjusted) slows in Q1:16, due to tighter credit conditions



Headline inflation declines to a fresh low of -3.0% y-o-y in March, due to lower prices of food, fuel and tobacco

The NBR is expected to embark on a tightening cycle later in the year

The recently-adopted “Debt Settlement Law” (DSL) will likely hinder credit activity



Unemployment rate falls for a 2nd consecutive year to 9.1% in 2015

Domestic demand to shift from private consumption to investment



External rebalancing continues in January to a 14-year low of 4.6% (12-month rolling basis), supported by favourable energy prices and buoyant exports



Headline inflation returns to negative territory in March (-0.4% y-o-y), due to higher food and energy deflation

The Central Bank is set to to maintain its key rate on hold at 3.25% until the dissipation of domestic political uncertainty



Significant fiscal consolidation in 2M:16, due to strong revenue performance



Banking sector losses remain at manageable levels for a second consecutive year in FY:15



The hijacking of an Egypt Air flight in late March will deal another blow to the tourism industry, already reeling from the terrorist bombing of a Russian plane last October

Suez Canal receipts decline in the first 8 month of the fiscal year, due to currency valuation effects



Weekly Report 5 - 11 April 2016

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