Weekly Report 18 - 24 October 2016

A looser fiscal stance in sight in Q4:16, to temper the economic slowdown

Current account deteriorates significantly in August, due to a less favourable energy bill and a sharp decline in tourist receipts

Underlying growth in credit to the private sector shows signs of a slowdown in September, due to weaker demand for corporate credit

Deposit growth improves in September, underpinned by strong economic activity

The ruling GERB party candidate, T. Tsacheva, leads presidential election race, but a runoff is almost certain

Lending activity remains subdued in September, due to tight credit standards and weak loan demand

Growth in customer deposits slows in September amid easing competition among banks

Profitability of the banking system improves in H1:16

Customer deposits accelerate in Q3:16, reflecting the gradual return of confidence, following the agreement to hold legislative elections in December

The slowdown in lending activity moderates markedly in Q3:16, on the back of improving loan demand and supply

Economic growth strengthens to 3.1% y-o-y in H1:16 from 2.8% in H2:15 and 2.7% in H1:15

Fitch upgrades Cyprus’ long-term sovereign debt rating by one notch to BB-, with a positive outlook

Tourist arrivals rise sharply in 9M:16, benefiting mainly from heightening security concerns in Turkey and Egypt

The fiscal deficit of central government narrows significantly in 2M:16/17, mainly due to payment deferrals to Egypt’s state buyer of subsidised basic commodities (GASC)

The FY:16/17 fiscal deficit will surpass not only its target of 9.8% of GDP, but also the past year’s estimated outcome of 11.8% of GDP, in the absence of additional corrective measures