Bi-Weekly Report 6 - 19 November 2018


External rebalancing intensified in September, with the 12-month rolling current account deficit narrowing to 5.8% of GDP from 6.5% in August

The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose for a 2nd consecutive quarter in Q3:18, reaching a 5-quarter high of 11.2%

Turkey rose fourteen places to 43rd in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business ranking for 2019



Headline inflation reached 4.3% y-o-y in October against 3.3% at end-2017, due to higher energy prices and (to a lesser extent) stronger domestic demand

The NBR needs to raise rates further to attenuate overheating pressures



Stronger tax revenue offset pressures on current spending and public investment, keeping the 4-quarter rolling budget surplus at 0.9% of GDP in Q3:18, broadly unchanged compared with the Q4:17 outcome

Fiscal policy is set to become more expansionary in FY:19



Serbia's competitiveness improved in 2018

FX-adjusted customer deposit growth accelerated in 9M:18, reaching 8.3% y-o-y in September, on the back of strengthening economic activity

Credit growth (adjusted for FX movements) accelerated in 9M:18, reaching an 8-year high of 6.9% y-o-y in September, despite continued large write-offs



Banking sector net income rose sharply in 9M:18, by 66.2% y-o-y to an all-time high of EUR 125.0mn (1.2% of GDP)

FYROM ranked 10th out of 190 countries in this year's World Bank's Ease of Doing Business 2019 Report



The banking sector's ROAE weakened on an annual basis to a still solid level of 12.9% in 9Μ:18



Customer deposits declined in 9M:18, due to increased depositor uncertainty in H1:18

Real estate prices maintained their momentum in Q2:18

Cyprus fell 3 places to 57th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Ranking 2019



The FY:18/19 fiscal deficit is set to miss its target of 8.4% of GDP, due to higher-than-budgeted interest payments and energy subsidies

The CBE is likely to remain in a "wait-and-see" mode until the ongoing emerging market volatility eases

Egypt rose nine places to 120th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business ranking for 2019


Appendix: Financial Markets

Bi-Weekly Report 6 - 19 November 2018

Contact Us

We are always ready to respond to your requests for information or to answer your questions about our products and services.

Request more information

Please complete the following details so we can provide you the information you need. In case of fraud, please contact our call center directly at 210 484 8484.
Optional custom content that replaces the the entire default content.