Bi-Weekly Report 4-17 December 2018


Economic activity is set to contract in Q4:18, after having experienced a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3:18

The CBRT is likely to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 24.0% and maintain a tightening bias at least until end-H1:19



The Romanian economy gained further momentum in Q3:18

Economic growth is set to ease slightly in FY:19



The Bulgarian economy lost momentum in Q3:18

GDP growth is set to rebound in FY:19, fueled by a looser fiscal stance

The labour market is showing signs of stagnation



The fiscal policy stance turned expansionary in 9M:18

The 2019 Budget is set to meet its deficit target of 0.5% of GDP



GDP growth rebounded to 2.3% y-o-y in 9M:18 from -0.6% a year earlier

The 4-quarter rolling current account balance turned into a surplus of 0.2% of GDP in Q3:18 from a deficit of 1.0% in Q4:17, due to a favourable balance of goods & services

The Central Bank lowered its key rate for the third time this year, by 25 bps, to an all-time low of 2.5%



The fiscal balance improved in 10M:18, due to expenditure restraint

The 2019 Budget is set to meet its deficit target of 1.9% of GDP



Economic activity posted solid growth of 3.7% y-o-y in Q3:18

The European Commission for Competition (ECC) approved the revised subsidy scheme "Estia" -- set to provide support to "vulnerable" distressed borrowers with loans secured with their primary residence



Fiscal consolidation to continue for a third consecutive fiscal year in 2018/19, but at a slower-than-envisaged pace due to a higher-than-budgeted interest bill

SDR-denominated Suez Canal receipts are set to post solid growth for a second consecutive fiscal year in 2018/19, provided there is no escalation in the global trade war


Appendix: Financial Markets

Bi-Weekly Report 4-17 December 2018