Bi-Weekly Report 4-17 April 2017

Turkey                                                                                     

Political and economic uncertainty to ease following the "Yes" vote on contentious constitutional changes

Lending activity (FX-adjusted) accelerated in Q1:16, supported by loosening macro-prudential measures and Government's credit guarantees

The NPL ratio has remained broadly stable on an annual basis at 3.2% in Q1:16, amid an adverse operating environment

Romania

Headline inflation remains subdued at 0.2% y-o-y in March

The NBR maintains its key interest rate on hold

Bulgaria

Headline inflation rises to 1.9% y-o-y in March from 0.1% in December due to higher volatile food and energy prices

The unemployment rate improved in FY:16, albeit mainly due to a decline in the participation rate

Serbia

GDP growth reached a post-global crisis high of 2.8% in FY:16

Headline inflation continued to increase in March

FYROM

Domestic political crisis continues for a third consecutive year

Headline inflation rose to 0.6% y-o-y in March from -0.2% at end-2016 on the back of higher core inflation

Tourist arrival growth recovered, on a 12-month rolling basis, to 5.4% y-o-y in February from a 5-year low of 5.1% in December

Albania

Economic growth strengthened to a 6-year high of 3.5% in FY:16 from 2.6% in FY:15, despite strong external headwinds

Headline inflation remained broadly flat at 2.1% y-o-y in March

Cyprus                                                                                     

Headline inflation reached a high of 1.9% in March, driven by recovering energy prices

The current account deficit widened markedly by 2.3 pps y-o-y to 5.3% of GDP in FY:16

Egypt

Headline inflation may have reached its peak in March

SDR-denominated Suez Canal receipts to boost budget revenue by 0.4 pps of GDP in FY:16/17, on the back of large currency valuation effects

Appendix: Financial Markets