Bi-Weekly Report 12 - 25 November 2019


External rebalancing continued for a 16th consecutive month in September, with the 12-month rolling current account balance moving into a surplus of 0.8% of GDP (the highest in almost 20 years) from a deficit of 7.1% in June (the highest in 6 years)



Adjusted for the purchase of military equipment (worth 1.8% of GDP), the (underlying) government budget surplus widened by 0.4 pps y-o-y to 2.8% of GDP in 9M:19, due to tighter current spending controls and higher EU grants

Bulgaria’s already low gross public debt is set to decline further in FY:20, on the back of healthy GDP growth negative ex-post real interest rates and a primary surplus



Easing inflation and strong appreciation pressures on the RSD strengthened the NBS’ hand to lower its key rate by a further 25 bps to 2.25%

A smaller-than-initially-expected fiscal deterioration in 9M:19 provides room for a (higher-than-budgeted) increase in expenditure in Q4:19



Fiscal prudence continued in 9M:19, with the budget surplus reaching a post-crisis high of 4.2% of GDP, on a 12-month rolling basis, in September from 3.5% in FY:18 (excluding the once-off impact of the sale of the Cyprus Cooperative Bank)



Bi-Weekly Report 12 - 25 November 2019

Contact Us

We are always ready to respond to your requests for information or to answer your questions about our products and services.

Request more information

Please complete the following details so we can provide you the information you need. In case of fraud, please contact our call center directly at 210 484 8484.
Optional custom content that replaces the the entire default content.