After successive record years, Greek tourism enters 2026 with exceptionally limited visibility, as the geopolitical disruption in the Middle East has put pressure on the first link of the tourism value chain: air transport. In this environment, the annual SME Business Survey of the National Bank of Greece of Greek hotels is particularly relevant, as it was conducted at the peak of the crisis, during April-May. The core finding is that, even at the height of uncertainty, sector expectations remained positive, pointing to an increase in hotel sales of around 3% in 2026, compared with 4.5% in 2025. This estimate should be viewed as conservative, as the sector’s confidence index has been improving steadily since then, in line with the normalization of conditions.
This positive outlook is also supported by international forecasts for European tourism, which point to growth of 3%-4% in 2026, as well as by air traffic data at Greek airports, with flights in the May-August period increasing by 3.6%, compared with 1.6% in Europe.
However, the positive picture does not mean that Greek tourism has remained unaffected by the geopolitical and energy shock. The rise in oil prices, which peaked in April at USD 120 /bbl, increased air transport costs, with fuel prices doubling, while also intensifying inflationary pressures in Europe and reducing disposable income in key source markets. The survey confirms that Greek hotel enterprises were more exposed to the effects of the crisis than the broader business sector: 80% reported cost pressure and nearly half reported an impact on demand and investment planning, compared with 70% and 30%, respectively, for SMEs overall.
The fact that the crisis did not ultimately turn into a severe disruption is largely due to certain structural features of the Greek tourism model that proved supportive in this specific context. High dependence on European markets – around 90% of inbound overnight stays, versus roughly 80% in the wider Mediterranean region – and the strong focus on the sun-and-sea tourism model helped sustain demand, as European tourists showed increased appetite for summer leisure travel to Mediterranean destinations. The most critical structural parameter, however, was air connectivity. Given Greece’s limited domestic market base and geographical distance from key source markets, a prolonged disruption in air transport could have disproportionately affected Greek tourism. In the end, this risk did not materialize: initial fears of fuel shortages were not confirmed, while the spike in prices was short-lived and occurred at a time that allowed airlines to absorb part of the cost pressure through hedging strategies.
The key lesson from the current situation is that, in an environment of more frequent geopolitical and energy shocks, managing aviation risk should become a central tool of tourism policy. To illustrate the sector’s sensitivity to a more prolonged disruption, indicative scenarios for the next tourism period are considered: in a low-pressure scenario, with oil prices close to USD 80 /bbl through the 1st half of 2027, tourism demand could be negatively affected by up to 2 percentage points. In a prolonged disruption scenario, with average prices close to USD 100 /bbl, the corresponding impact on demand could reach up to 5.5 percentage points.
This issue is becoming even more important as efforts to transform the Greek tourism model are already underway. On the policy side, interventions are being promoted to address long-standing weaknesses such as spatial planning and infrastructure. On the industry side, greater maturity is also evident, as nearly half of hotels are positive towards contributing to upgrading local infrastructure through the resilience fee and are proactively targeting demand from long-haul markets. In this context, air connectivity must be proactively safeguarded. This requires a crisis management framework with objective activation triggers, pre-agreed response protocols, transparent temporary incentives, and the ability to adjust airport charges flexibly where necessary. Without a resilient air connectivity framework, broader efforts to upgrade the country’s tourism model risk remaining exposed at the first link of the chain – and the one over which the country has the least direct control.
See the infographic:
