Despite the positive momentum, business sector sales slowed markedly in 2025 (+2.6%, compared with +4.2% in 2024), reflecting prevailing cyclical pressures. This is corroborated both by (i) the halt in the improvement of Greece’s share of European business activity (having recovered only 10% of the losses caused by the country's deep economic crisis that began in 2009) and (ii) the subdued start to 2026 (stagnation in the first two months). Under these conditions, our estimates point to sales growth of around 1% for 2026, with geopolitical developments acting as a drag and creating asymmetric downside risks.
In this context, it is of vital importance to identify sectors that can serve as accelerators of economic growth. Against this backdrop, the digital sector (ICT) has recorded an impressive rise over the last 25 years, more than doubling its contribution to the economy (from 2.9% to 6.5%), supported by technological developments in mobile networks, fiber optics, and software. However, this progress has not been accompanied by meaningful convergence with European benchmarks (the sector accounts for 10.6% of the economy in the EU), suggesting that the improvement largely reflects exogenous technological trends rather than a domestically driven acceleration of the sector.
ICT’s role extends beyond the sector itself and affects the overall productive structure of the economy. Specifically, Greece’s digital gap with the EU is estimated at 30% – a gap that is reflected symmetrically in the composition of the economy’s fixed assets (ICT fixed assets as a percentage of total fixed assets) and in the digitalization of businesses (use of tools such as CRM and BI). The composition of digital investment indicates that the issue lies not in access to technology, but in its use:
- In terms of technological infrastructure, Greece exhibits performance comparable to Europe (0.8% of total fixed assets in telecommunications and IT equipment).
- By contrast, the lag is concentrated in software (0.7% versus 1.5% in the EU), i.e., in the component related to the integration and utilization of technology in the production process.
From this perspective, the lag in the use of technology acts as a constraint on the entire economy, with the mechanism operating largely through the labor productivity channel. Indeed, our analysis confirms that productivity is linked both to the overall level of digital assets and to their composition, with the share of software playing a decisive role. Based on this estimated model, we quantify the impact of different digital investment scenarios on the course of productivity over a ten-year horizon:
- In the conservative scenario, assuming digital investment maintains its current pace, productivity could increase by approximately 30% by 2035, narrowing part of the gap with the EU (to 47% from 55%) and generating an estimated benefit of €12 billion for the Greek economy (compared with the current digitalization trend).
- In the ambitious scenario, where digital investment accelerates by 40% with the aim of bringing ICT fixed assets in line with EU levels, the productivity gap could be reduced to 41%, adding €23 billion to the economy in 2035. This target is both (i) realistic (investment momentum corresponding to the previous decade) and (ii) a minimum requirement (as Europe itself lags technologically on a global scale).
Greece has already laid the foundations for the digital transition with initiatives such as myDATA and Greece 2.0. The next step is the establishment of a coherent and binding framework that will make digitalization the easiest and most advantageous choice for SMEs. Based on best practices, this requires: i) the creation of a single digital platform for simplification and cost reduction, ii) the use of electronic invoicing as a lever for software adoption through pre-approved, low-cost programs (e.g., ERP with integrated AI), alongside advisory and financial support, and iii) the enhancement of businesses' transformation capability through targeted investment incentives and the development of digital skills.
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