Southeastern Europe & Mediterranean Emerging Market Economies: Bi-Weekly Report 6 - 19 January 2026

NORTH MACEDONIA
Solid GDP growth has spurred job creation, pushing unemployment to historic lows
A return to the pre-pandemic average inflation rate (of c. 1.5%) remains challenging due to strong wage growth  
Elevated inflation calls for a conservative monetary policy approach

ROMANIA
GDP growth remained subdued in 9M:25, although it picked up to 1.5% from a post-pandemic low of 0.9% in FY:24, still only half its long-term potential growth rate
With the implications of the massive fiscal consolidation package yet to fully unwind, GDP growth is expected to remain lacklustre throughout 2026, before gradually recovering towards its potential trajectory starting in 2027

SERBIA
GDP growth slowed down markedly in 2025, amid domestic political unrest and US sanctions on the macro-critical energy company NIS 
Solid fundamentals set to drive GDP growth once uncertainty eases
Policies are unlikely to provide much support to economic growth in 2026, amid heightened uncertainty



APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT:  
        MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS