Southeastern Europe & Mediterranean Emerging Market Economies: Bi-Weekly Report 2 - 15 June 2026

TÜRKIYE
Tightening monetary conditions, partly in response to Middle East tensions, weighed on economic activity in Q1:26
GDP growth is projected to moderate to 2.8% in FY:26 before firming to 3.8% in FY:27, as geopolitical pressures compound already persistent inflationary and external headwinds
Downside risks remain elevated if expectations of a gradual settlement of the Middle East conflict are not realized

BULGARIA
The economy started the year on a strong footing, driven by domestic demand
GDP growth is projected to moderate to 2.7% in FY:26 from 3.1% 
in FY:25 amid spillovers from the Middle East crisis, and remain broadly stable in FY:27, as private consumption and fixed investment gradually normalize
Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside amid external uncertainties, while domestic political stabilization supports reforms and investment

EGYPT
Egypt maintains flexible exchange rate regime amid spillovers from the Middle East crisis and external pressures
Monetary policy credibility has been reinforced by the maintenance of an appropriately restrictive stance in a challenging global financial environment
Resilient near-term GDP growth but moderating outlook amid external spillovers

APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT:  
        MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS