Southeastern Europe & Mediterranean Emerging Market Economies: Bi-Weekly Report 14 - 27 November 2023

CYPRUS
Banks’ profits surge, on higher net interest income 
The repricing of banks’ excess liquidity placed with the ECB and loan portfolio boosted net interest income 
Reflecting challenges from the higher inflation and interest rate environment, the cost of risk has started to climb from historic lows, despite improving asset quality metrics 
Higher provisioning needs to weigh on profitability in the period ahead

ROMANIA
Romanian economy is seen stalling in H2:23 
Easing inflation should provide some tailwind to GDP growth in FY:24, with (EU-funded) fixed investment remaining the main contributor
Fiscal rebalancing to regain pace in 2024, with the budget deficit unlikely to fall below the 3.0% of GDP mark earlier than in 2026

APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT: MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS & FINANCIAL MARKETS