Greece is a quintessential island tourism destination, with its islands hosting nearly half of the country’s foreign visitors and having doubled arrivals over the past 15 years, reaching 16 million in 2024. They also stand out globally, accounting for 11% of world island tourism, with seven Greek islands ranked among the top 30 destinations worldwide – alongside iconic islands such as Bali and Hawaii. Maintaining this position now depends on the islands’ ability to withstand increasing visitor flows: with 33 tourists per km² per day at peak season (compared to just 2–3 in the rest of Greece and the Mediterranean), infrastructure is already operating at its limits.
The goal for the next decade is not to increase arrivals, but rather to enhance value per visitor and smooth seasonality. Increasing the share of non-European tourists from 8% to 18% by 2035 could raise spending per arrival by 15%, while a shift toward new destinations and off-peak travel could reduce the July–August concentration from 42% to 34%. This would enable infrastructure to be utilized more efficiently and for a greater part of the year, improving investment returns.
Over the past 20 years, infrastructure investments per capita on the islands have remained similar to those on the mainland, despite the fact that demand rises by up to 50% during the two peak months and costs are around 15% higher. To bridge this gap and secure sustainable infrastructure, investments of approximately €35 billion by 2035 (i.e., €3.5 billion annually) are required — nearly double the average of the past five years. By reducing seasonality, these infrastructures could be utilized at over 95% capacity for six months a year, compared to just two today, significantly improving investment sustainability.
With new international trends opening a window of opportunity, the priority is to create a stable and predictable financing mix. The first source lies in own resources: currently, around €0.4 billion are collected annually from accommodation and cruise levies — almost half of the additional need created by seasonal population growth. The key requirement is the institutionalization of full ring-fencing, ensuring that these revenues are reinvested locally in the regions from which they originate. International examples from the Balearic Islands, Venice, and the Seychelles show how linking revenues to specific projects enhances transparency, accountability, and creates room for additional resource mobilization. Complementarily, private capital should be leveraged through Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) and concessions, as well as through European and international funds (RRF, NSRF, EIB loans).
However, the challenge is not only financial. Without an appropriate governance architecture, available resources will remain trapped in studies and fragmented plans. The establishment of a National Island Infrastructure Authority — with powers to pool resources, prioritize projects based on data, and accelerate implementation through fast-track licensing mechanisms — is crucial. For such an Authority to function effectively, it must be supported by two complementary pillars: (i) First, priority should be given to the completion of island development plans, based on the upcoming Special Spatial Framework for Tourism; and (ii) Second, a technical support and monitoring mechanism is required, including project preparation, inter-municipal engineering clusters, and performance indicators. Examples such as the Balearics and the Azores demonstrate that such an “institutional triangle” greatly enhances effectiveness and accelerates project implementation — and its application to the Greek islands could serve as a pilot model for all national tourism destinations.
In summary, infrastructure investment is the decisive factor of the coming decade. Without this strategic shift, today’s success will be exhausted under the weight of inadequate infrastructure. With it, tourism revenues could increase by 45% (+€5 billion) and GDP from €24 billion to around €30 billion, with significant multiplier effects on employment and exports. The real challenge is not the number of arrivals, but Greece’s — and above all, its islands’ — ability to manage success and transform it into a sustainable competitive advantage.
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