Greece’s GDP growth accelerated in Q4:2025, both on an annual and on a quarterly basis (2.4% y-o-y and 0.8% q-o-q s.a.), supported by a broad-based increase of all key expenditure components. In FY:2025, GDP increased by 2.2% y-o-y, surpassing the euro area average for a fifth consecutive year.
The accelerating recovery of fixed capital investment (GFCF) lifted its share in GDP to a 16-year high of 19.1% in Q4:2025 and 18.0% in FY:2025, indicating a consistent narrowing of Greece’s investment gap. Residential construction surged by 41.2% y-o-y – supporting the rebalancing of the housing market – and non-residential construction by 8.5% y-o-y in Q4:2025.
Private consumption accelerated to 2.5% in Q4:2025 from 1.4% in Q3, supported by continued improvement in labour market conditions. The unemployment rate decreased to a 17-year low of 7.9% in December and real wages increases continued for a 3rd consecutive year (2.1% in 2025).
Goods exports surpassed expectations for a 2nd consecutive quarter, increasing by a solid 7.1% y-o-y in constant price terms (3.0% y-o-y in FY:2025), the fastest growth in three years, remaining unaffected by tariff increases. In FY:2025, total exports increased by 1.7% y-o-y, while imports declined by 1.1%, bringing the contribution of net exports to GDP growth to 1.1 pps.
NBG’s nowcasting model estimates, incorporating the latest information from leading and conjunctural indicators, available for 2M:2026, point to steady GDP growth of 2.4% y-o-y in Q1:2026. This estimate, however, does not account for a possible weakening in March's monthly indicators due to the escalating crisis in the Middle East.
The recent escalation of the crisis in the Middle East warrants the consideration of alternative scenarios that incorporate the potential effects of the already significant increase in energy prices and heightened uncertainty that may arise if hostilities continue in the coming weeks.
Under a scenario where the conflict extends through April and disruptions to seaborne fuel transport abate by mid-2026, CPI inflation is projected to rise temporarily to 3.5%-4.0% y-o-y on average in March-April (3.2% in FY:2026), while GDP growth would slow to 2.0% y-o-y in FY:2026, without accounting for the potential activation of government support measures (a first set of measures to contain inflationary pressures has already been announced in recent days).