Greece’s GDP increased at an accelerating pace in Q3:2025, both on an annual and a quarterly basis (2.0% y-o-y and 0.6% q-o-q s.a.), outpacing the euro area average for a 17th consecutive quarter.
The accelerating recovery in fixed capital investment (GFCF), especially in construction-related components, was the main driver of economic activity. GFCF recorded the strongest annual increase (12.8% y-o-y) in two and a half years, lifting its share in GDP to a 16-year high of 18.4%.
GFCF levels were upwardly revised by 6.0% for H1:2025 and by 5.0% for FY:2024, compared with the previous national accounts release. Around 50% of this revision reflects stronger non-residential investment, while around one quarter stems from higher residential construction activity.
Private consumption grew by a strong 2.4% y-o-y in Q3:2025, while H1:2025 consumption growth was revised upwards to 2.5% from 1.5% previously.
Net exports delivered another positive surprise, for a second consecutive quarter, with their contribution to GDP growth rising to 2.4 pps in Q3:2025 (from 2.0 pps in Q2), on the back of resilient exports and, more importantly, a significant drop in imports from very high levels.
A significant positive contribution to GDP growth (+1.8 pps annually) came from the reduction in imports of goods and services (-4.0% y-o-y). Import values in constant prices were revised downwards by c. 2.0% for both 2024 and H1:2025.
NBG’s nowcasting model, incorporating the latest information from leading and conjunctural indicators available for October-November, points to accelerating GDP growth, in both y-o-y and q-o-q terms, of 2.4% y-o-y and 1.0% q-o-q, s.a., respectively.
The current GDP trajectory aligns with a full-year growth estimate slightly above 2.0%. The need for inventory replenishment, ongoing real wage increases, lower energy prices, and supportive fiscal and monetary conditions set the stage for continued GDP acceleration into 2026.