Weekly Report 12-18 April 2016


The CBRT cuts its overnight lending rate by 50 bps

The fiscal balance improves in Q1:16, supported by capital spending restraint and large privatisation proceeds

External rebalancing continues in 2M:16, due to a favourable energy bill



Current account deficit widens to 1.3% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis in February from 1.1% at end-2015, due to stronger domestic demand



Headline inflation falls to a 21-month low of -1.5% y-o-y in March

A better trade performance and lower income outflows push the current account surplus to 2.5% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis in February



Headline inflation slows to 0.6% y-o-y in March, due to favourable food and energy prices

NBS to end its cycle of monetary policy loosening after the April 24th legislative elections



Political crisis escalates due to the violation of the Przino agreement

Tourist arrivals reach an all-time high of 42.4k in 2M:16



Economic growth strengthens to a 5-year high of 2.6% in FY:15

Record-low inflation encourages the BoA to proceed with an additional 25 bp policy rate cut in April



Headline deflation declines to -2.5% y-o-y in March from -2.6% in February, due to slower core deflation

Tourist arrivals rise sharply in November-March, mainly due to heightening security concerns in neighbouring competitors



Headline inflation declines by 0.1 pp to 9.1% y-o-y between February and March

CBE likely to keep its policy rates on hold until the end of the current fiscal year



Weekly Report 12-18 April 2016

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