Bi-Weekly Report 9-22 July 2019


The CBRT cut aggressively its 1-week repo rate by 425 bps to 19.75%

FX-adjusted lending growth turned negative in Q2:19, for the first time since mid-2009, despite a boost from state-owned banks



Headline inflation declined to a 14-month low of 1.5% y-o-y in June from 2.0% in December, hitting the lower end of the NBS target range (of 3±1.5%)

Easing inflation and strong appreciation pressures on the RSD strengthened the NBS' hand to lower its key rate by 25 bps to 2.75%

Serbia issued its first ever euro-denominated sovereign bond, worth EUR 1.0bn (2.2% of GDP)



GDP growth slowed to a still solid 3.2% y-o-y in Q1:19 from 3.9% in FY:1

GDP growth is expected to ease further to a still strong 3.3% this year



The current account deficit (CAD) is estimated to have stabilised at 2.4% of GDP in FY:18/19 (July 2018-June 2019), following a significant adjustment over the past 1½ years

The CAD is set to narrow to a 6-year low of 1.6% of GDP in FY:19/20




Bi-Weekly Report 9-22 July 2019

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