Bi-Weekly Report 9-22 April 2019


The fiscal deficit widened significantly by 0.3 pps y-o-y to 0.9% of GDP in Q1:19, mainly on the back of higher primary spending ahead of the end-March local elections

External rebalancing continued, for an eighth consecutive month, in February, with the 12-month rolling current account deficit declining to a 9-year low of 2.2% of GDP from 3.6% in December and a 6-year high of 7.1% in June

Though weakening on an annual basis in the first 2 months of the year, the capital and financial account covered the current account deficit and boosted FX reserves



Tax hikes, higher volatile food and energy prices as well as a weaker RON pushed up headline inflation to 4.0% y-o-y in March from 3.3% at end-2018

The NBR remains on hold



The ruling GERB party is shaken by corruption scandals

Headline inflation rose to 3.6% y-o-y in March from 2.7% at end- 2018, mainly on the back of higher volatile food prices



Headline inflation rose to a 15-month high (of 2.8% y-o-y) in March, reflecting unfavourable fruit & vegetable prices

The benign inflation outlook should strengthen the NBS’ hand to lower its central rate by 25 bps to an all-time low of 2.75% in the summer



No candidate secured an outright victory in the first round of Presidential elections; the May 5th run-off outcome will be deemed valid only if the turnout exceeds the threshold of 40% of registered voters

Headline inflation rose to 1.4% y-o-y in March from 0.9% at end- 2018, driven by higher volatile food and energy inflation

The Central Bank is likely to maintain its key rate unchanged at a record low of 2.25% throughout the rest of the year



Headline inflation declined sharply to a 3-year low of 1.1% y-o-y in March, mainly due to a downside correction in volatile prices of fruit & vegetables

The BoA is set to maintain its key rate on hold at a record low of 1.0% this year



Headline inflation declined modestly from 1.7% y-o-y at end-2018 to 1.4% in March, on the back of softer energy inflation

The current account deficit narrowed by 1.4 pps to 7.0% of GDP in FY:18, due to a less unfavourable ship trade balance



President el-Sissi could remain in office until 2030

Moody’s upgrades Egypt's sovereign credit rating by one notch to B2 -- 5 notches below investment grade



Bi-Weekly Report 9-22 April 2019