Bi-Weekly Report 21 April – 4 May 2020


Headline inflation eased for a 3rd consecutive month to 10.9% y-o-y in April, mainly driven by the plummeting energy prices

The CBRT cut aggressively its key rate to counteract recessionary trend, despite strong pressure on the TRY, in the face of high external financing needs



Higher current spending and lower grants compressed the consolidated budget surplus to 1.4% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis in February from 1.7% at end-2019

A sharp economic contraction, together with higher spending to counter the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, should push the budget “into the red” in FY:20 (-5.0% of GDP)



Egypt seeks IMF help to counter the impact of COVID-19

The CBE is unlikely to reduce further its key rate, in view of underlying pressures on the EGP

Slower-than-expected economic growth and increased COVID- 19-related spending will likely weigh heavily on the FY:19/20 Budget



Bi-Weekly Report 21 April – 4 May 2020

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