Bi-Weekly Report 21 April – 4 May 2020
TURKEY
Headline inflation eased for a 3rd consecutive month to 10.9% y-o-y in April, mainly driven by the plummeting energy prices
The CBRT cut aggressively its key rate to counteract recessionary trend, despite strong pressure on the TRY, in the face of high external financing needs
CYPRUS
Higher current spending and lower grants compressed the consolidated budget surplus to 1.4% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis in February from 1.7% at end-2019
A sharp economic contraction, together with higher spending to counter the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, should push the budget “into the red” in FY:20 (-5.0% of GDP)
EGYPT
Egypt seeks IMF help to counter the impact of COVID-19
The CBE is unlikely to reduce further its key rate, in view of underlying pressures on the EGP
Slower-than-expected economic growth and increased COVID- 19-related spending will likely weigh heavily on the FY:19/20 Budget
APPENDIX: FINANCIAL MARKETS