Bi-Weekly Report 20 November-6 December 2018


Stronger domestic demand and higher global oil prices pushed down the current account surplus to 3.5% of GDP on a 4-quarter rolling basis in Q3:18 from 6.5% in Q4:17

Bulgaria lost 4 places to 59th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Ranking 2019



Serbia's competitiveness deteriorated in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report for 2019

The current account deficit reversed its upward trend in 9M:18



Significant progress towards the finalisation of the revision of the constitution – needed for joining NATO and starting EU accession talks

The Central Bank maintained its key rate -- the 28-day CB bill rate -- on hold at a record low of 2.75% at its November MPC meeting



Albania's competitiveness deteriorated slightly in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report 2019

Albania's electricity generation more than doubled in 9M:18, as a result of abundant rainfall and favourable base effects



The unemployment rate is on track to reach a post-crisis low of 8.6% this year, underpinned by strong economic activity and active labour market policies

Tourist arrivals are set to rise by c. 6.0% to a record-high of 3.9mn in FY:18, despite declining support from the island's main source countries -- the UK, Russia and Israel



Credit to the private sector (FX-adjusted) gained steam for a second consecutive quarter in Q1:18/19, underpinned by lower lending interest rates

Customer deposits (FX-adjusted) lost momentum for a second successive quarter in Q1:18/19, due to lower EGP remuneration rates and strong base effects

The NPL ratio declined further to a multi-year low of 4.9%, while the NPL coverage remained close to the 100% threshold in 2017/18

The unemployment rate declined by 1.9 pps y-o-y to 10.0% in Q1:18/19


Appendix: Financial Markets

Bi-Weekly Report 20 November-6 December 2018