GDP growth accelerated to 2.0% y-o-y in Q3, with significant revisions revealing surging fixed capital investment – particularly in construction – buoyant consumption and net exports, paving the way to a FY:2025 growth above 2.0%
• Greece’s GDP increased at an accelerating pace in Q3:2025, both on an annual (+2.0%) as well as on a quarterly basis (+0.6% q-o-q s.a.), outpacing the euro area average for a 17th consecutive quarter.
• The accelerating recovery of fixed capital investment (GFCF) – especially of construction related components – was the main driver of economic activity, recording the strongest annual increase (+12.8% y-o-y) in 2½ years and lifting the GFCF share in GDP to a 16-year high of 18.4%.
• Residential construction surged by 25.4% y-o-y in Q3:2025 and nonresidential construction by 17.9% y-o-y, in line with the strengthening of relevant sectoral indicators. Investments in transport equipment also rose sharply (28% y-o-y).
• GFCF levels were upwardly revised by 6.0% for H1:2025 and by 5.0% for FY:2024, compared with the previous release of the national accounts data. About 50% of this revision reflects stronger non-residential investment spending, while c. ¼ is due to a higher residential construction activity.
• The above revision mainly reflects inventory reclassifications that boosted the contribution of GFCF as well as revisions to deflators (final consumption and import) to overall economic activity.
• Private consumption grew by a strong 2.4% y-o-y in Q3:2025, alongside an upward revision to consumption growth for H1:2025 to 2.5% y-o-y from 1.5%. Annual growth for 2023-24 in constant prices was also revised to 2.3% from 1.9%, mainly due to a downward adjustment in the private consumption deflator (to 3.0% y-o-y from 4.2%).
• Net exports delivered another positive surprise, for a second consecutive quarter, with their contribution to GDP growth strengthening further to 2.4 pps in Q3:2025 (from 2.0 pps in Q2), on the back of resilient exports, but mainly due to the significant drop in imports from very high levels.
• Specifically, goods exports volumes were up by 1.7% y-o-y in Q3, after a temporary drop in Q2 (-0.7% due to a sharp contraction in fuel product exports). Services exports grew by 1.1% y-o-y in Q3 (+2.7% in Q2), with the weakening in the shipping sector and other categories of services exports, partially offsetting the strong momentum of tourism.
• A significant positive contribution to GDP growth (+1.8 pps annually) came from the reduction in imports of goods and services (-4.0% y-o-y). The value of imports, in constant prices, was revised downwards by c. 2.0% for 2024 as well as for the first half of 2025 mainly due to the application of a higher import deflator according to the final data.
• The NBG nowcasting model estimates, incorporating the latest information from leading and conjunctural indicators, available for October-November, point to accelerating GDP growth, in both y-o-y and q-o-q terms, of +2.2% y-o-y and +0.8% q-o-q, s.a., respectively.
• The current GDP trajectory aligns with a full-year growth estimate slightly higher than 2%. The need for inventory replenishment, ongoing real wage increases, lower energy prices, and supportive fiscal and monetary conditions set the stage for further GDP acceleration into 2026.